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| The Oregon Duck uses the shakeweight. The Auburn Tiger is a P90X Man. The proof is in the results. |
At that moment, I wished that I had one of my many Ohio State friends present. Because no one team understands both sides of that question better than Ohio State. OSU has lost more BCS Championship Games (2) than any other team, although this is semantics as Oklahoma has lost 3 National Championship bowls (the BCS Championship Game started following the 2006 season). The flip side is that Ohio State has the most wins in BCS bowl games since the Big10/Pac10 joined the bowl alliance in 1998.
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| Andy Dalton and Tank Carder are either giants or those trophies are smaller than my t-ball trophies |
The answer to my friends question is unclear. Does the benefit of the increased exposure and theoretical recruiting boost that comes from playing in the big game but losing offset the positive inertia and favorable preseason ranking for the following year that results from a bowl victory?
To try to answer this, a number of short term and longer term outcomes were assessed. We compared the team that lost the national title game and the team that won a non-championship BCS bowl game and as a result finished second or third in the final polls. The national title game winner was included for comparison purposes. For example, the analysis for the 2010 season would include Auburn (winner), Oregon (loser), TCU(highest ranked non-champ BCS winner). Results were analyzed starting with the 2002 season. This year was arbitrarily selected. Although to be completely honest, I view the 2001 season as the end of an era for Nebraska football (ie the beginning of the end). That being said the 2000 though 2002 seasons represented a shift in balance of power from Florida State, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, and Tennessee to Oklahoma, Ohio State, USC, Florida, Texas, and LSU. It should also be noted that USA today poll was used to select the highest ranking non-BCS championship game team. Also USC results were calculated using the actual result of the games as they were played on the field (the NCAA forced USC to forfeit the result of a number of games for being LA's finest professional football team)
Here we go:
Record the following year: Which teams continued the success from the previous year and who failed to return to the mountaintop.
National Champion: 82-22
National Championship game loser 76-26
Highest Ranked Bowl winner 83-22
Pretty similar result with the exception of the loser of the national title game, although it should be noted that this result was skewed heavily by Texas' 5-7 record this year (apparently losing a 4 year starter at QB and a large percentage of your defense negatively effects your performance). There's one point for the non-title game BCS bowl winners. Of note Texas is the only team in any of these groups to fail to make a bowl the following year.
Return to a BCS bowl game the following year:
National Champion: 3
National Championship game loser: 5
Highest Ranked Bowl winner: 3
Score one for the championship game losers as 5 of the 8 returned to a BCS game the following year.
Return to the National Title Game/National Championship Winner the following year
National Champion: 1/0 (USC 2005)
National Championship game loser: 2/0 (Oklahoma 2004, Ohio State 2007)
Highest Ranked Bowl winner: 2/2 (USC 2004, LSU 2007)
As the name of this blog would indicate, you play to win the game. So with 2 National Championships in the following year for the non-title BCS bowl winner, they regain the lead.
In terms of instant gratification, the non-title BCS bowl winners have the greatest success the following year. These teams may be teams that were on the rise while the National Championship losers represent teams that were peaking.
What are the greater implications? Which teams develop into dynasties? Is there an appreciable difference that can be seen over the 4 years after a National Championship appearance or high level BCS victory? Over four years, the recruits that joined the team following their successful campaign will be seniors or redshirt juniors and as a result should be providing their maximum level of contribution to the success of the program.
Record in the four following years (average number of wins per year):
National Champion: 10.667
National Championship game loser: 10.1
Highest Ranked Bowl winner: 9.92
BCS bowl games in the four following years:
National Champion: 13
National Championship game loser: 12
Highest Ranked Bowl winner: 8
Return to the National Title Game/National Championship Winners in the following 4 years
National Champion: 5/2 [USC 2005, Ohio State 2006, Ohio State 2007, LSU 2007(W), Florida 2008(W)]
National Championship game loser: 3/0 (Oklahoma 2004/2008, Ohio State 2007)
Highest Ranked Bowl winner: 3/2 [USC 2004(W)/2005, LSU 2007(W)]
The final answer: The highest ranked non-championship BCS bowl winning teams have been more likely than the National Championship game losers to go on and win the National Championship game in the following year. They also have better records in the following year. The National Championship loser appears to have more sustained success with more BCS game appearance over a four year period but similar records.
So as a result of this analysis, I guess that I would say that I would rather be TCU (and I am making that assessment independant of the Oregon Ducks day-glo yellow socks).
However when you survey the altered landscape of college football in 2011 (ie lack of depth in Pac-10 and major question marks in the Big 12 combined with loss of the Big 12 championship game hurdle), my BCS Championship game projection is the Oregon Ducks vs the Oklahoma Sooners. Personally, I am looking forward to it already. These teams represent two of the fastest hurry-up offenses, so we can look forward to a game featuring almost 200 offensive plays.
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